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The riches of tomorrow are today

Here is an article ACEDEFI, a site launched by Marc Touati, which explains quite convincingly, that in the early evening I wrote in another post:

http://www.acdefi.com/index.php? pid = 535

ACDEF - October 17, 2008
Americans and Paulson 700 billion figure are really small players ... Indeed, while the banking crisis only to relate to the United States and in any case of Europe, the European Union, with a GDP roughly equivalent to the U.S. (around 15 000 billion) , announced a plan to rescue banks from about 1 500 billion. In
all EU countries, this plan will take the double form of a guarantee of interbank lending and a possible recapitalization of banks' capital. In other words, European banks will now be able to do their job in a comfortable car on a highway anchored clear and straight, with a speed limit of 60 km / h and with a dozen airbags
... In these conditions, it is clear that there will be no bankruptcy of large and medium banks in Europe and, hence, the prevailing liquidity in the interbank market for over a year has more reason to be . And this, while a warranty roughly equivalent exists in America.
In this context, following the drastic fall in stock prices in recent weeks, it is clear that international actions are becoming increasingly attractive. Last Friday, more than half of the CAC 40 companies showed a market capitalization lower than their own funds. This shows how the "sales" became exuberant.
Admittedly, the recession will go ahead in Europe. Nevertheless, given the lower interest rates, past and future, the decline of the euro, declining oil prices and raw materials not to mention the massive rescue plan banks, growth should gradually restart euro landers from the summer of 2009. However, since the stock markets generally expect six to nine months out of recession, a gradual recovery in global stock exchanges including both sides of the Atlantic is likely in late 2008.
course, life will not be smooth sailing and surprises punctuate even the fellows coming months. However, after the crisis of trust born of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, a breeze of optimism should now revive the markets.
As for banks, we can only advise them not to use the state guarantee. Not only because it pays off but because it imposes a duty to inspect the operation of signatory banks. In fact, these safeguards must simply be capable of restoring confidence. For the rest, the end of 2008 and 2009 will certainly be very rich in mergers and acquisitions and restructuring the international financial and banking landscape.
More generally, we have a duty to recall that today's stock market valuations have nothing to do with economic reality.
This disconnection occurs in two ways. On the one hand, comparing the market capitalization and equity firms listed. On the other hand, through the Fed model that calculates the level of profit per share is currently anticipated by the market for 2008.
In summary, half of the CAC 40 companies have a market capitalization lower than their own funds and the Fed model indicates that current stock prices anticipate a decline in EPS of at least 50%.
Without making value judgments, so there is two major "HICS.
Also, without being a genius either, it is inevitable that, given such valuations, investors who currently have cash or have strong fundamentals can already do their shopping balances and enjoy unbeatable. Now these investors are not necessarily European or American. Clearly, the wealth of tomorrow are today. Watch out for surprises ...
Marc Touati

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Some very promising young shoots and how to find

I will deal quickly with a subject dear to my heart.

In addition to buy when all investors are very scared, success in stock market is much easier by positioning itself on very small values, yet unknown, and very strong growth phase.

By choosing the right values, it combines three sources of enrichment:

a) the creation of value through the company, which in this stage is much faster and stronger than a mature business

b) increased investor enthusiasm that they are willing to pay a price higher and higher per euro profit / cash flow the company, because the perceived risk decreases.

c) In times like now, the distrust is even higher with respect to unknown company, and shares are generally cheap. When scholarships rebounding Overall, this third effect will inflate the capital gains of daring.

Based on this observation I have long sought a way to finding good securities firms still young, but promising (because there are also stock lots of "survival of the Medusa" that promise to enrich length of time ... and always disappoint, before ending miserably ... I personally have done several times). I

so far unearthed several sources of information for any overlap:

a) blogs and Internet forums: selecting good sites, forums or son Prot on good companies, it is possible have quality exchanges and hear about real nuggets. So on Boursorama, provided they do not attend forums known values, it is possible to hear of stocks with high potential, including exchange of information and to be undisturbed by major proclameurs, who know nothing, do not invest, but looking to play big .
A blog run by an enthusiast is also usually a gold mine. The best I know so far is:
http://www.blogbourse.com/roller/bourse-action-pour-tous/
There are ttenu by "Bernard", a real enthusiast, who made a very hard work of collecting information on small values, particularly those introduced recently.

b) Introductions: It is interesting to follow the recent IPOs. Nevertheless, it must be very careful. Most small introductions, especially when they are open to individuals, are quite "marketing" and therefore the price rarely offers opportunities enrichissmeent. It is even worse introduction is motivated by a transfer of shares. And when s'ait ven a good introduction, it is rare to get enough titles. That said, the best introductions are rarely those who ride the fastest, the strongest. If we take a very great success as Easydentic between the IPO and the launch, it took a good month or more, allowing time to position.
But the best opportunities are often small companies that really creep to raise capital, but not to pay their leaders to develop. They often use a distribution with IQ (accredited investors) and s' to introduce an unregulated market (eg, free market, or Alternext). In particular, the companies created by Europe Finance et Industrie (EFI) tend to be fairly good. This does not detract from
need to watch this closely, but it can provide an idea of ways to find names of companies and information, idéalment it will, eventually intersect.

Otherwise, to conclude this post, I can point to three companies that seem very promising in this category:

Golog => started the business, the product (an internet service reminiscent of Google) is quite unique, and dynamics, which requires confirmation, impressive. If the business plan referred to http://www.blogbourse.com/roller/bourse-action-pour-tous/ (Golog tab), then that is an enrichment insured

MP6 => I have already a little note on this stratéique business intelligence. I have an account aWith meeting the CEO to write, but their technology looks sensational and it seems since the last time that the marketing is gradually put on. Knowing that the company does not appear strangled by financial constraints in the short term (low fixed costs ...)

MobileGov: Technology does it seem interesting computer security and secure authentication and USB sticks. I still not understand the activity. For now we are in phase amroçage that would facilitate the recent AK.

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Towards the end of this horrible financial crisis ...

I was quite busy in recent weeks. Between regulatory reviews FSA British cramming and my new job I started, and an absence of two weeks in late September, not easy to release me.
I'll still be short, since I will truly more time until the end of next week, when I finish moving those pesky exams FSA.

A month of madness that just ended on the markets. Unheard of. Fellow speaking, a September 11 every two or three days for two months, in the words of the head of equity derivatives at Société Générale. Beyond all the polemics and dreams of some "end system", several findings, strike me:

1) Basically there is one of the most serious financial crisis in living memory, a mixture of 1929 and the Savings & Loans crisis. Also a crisis that few people saw coming.
2) Governments around the world have taken almost all measures they could. One wonders if instead of saving the banks massively, it would have been preferable to an ad hoc basis to participate in capital increases for troubled banks and guarantee interbank market for sound institutions. But one thing seems fairly certain: the states are willing to do anything to avoid depression. I think the worst is behind us. Especially do not forget the basic rule: when states want something and there is political will, the tide is inflected.

3) Some crazy valuations: the crisis in which we are surprised most people, after the violence. It is above all a question of trust has evaporated, a phenomenon that has been addresses illicit by bad loans made in recent years, accounting rules "IFRS" that force financial institutions to enhance their balance sheets at market value ( this leads to aberrant values and sometimes completely disconnected what a statistical approach would be to value loans, and forced sales). However, during recent months, we went to sellout sellout. Each fall, the prices seemed to have reached the purchase price ... but buyers were frustrated to find even lower prices the next day. Today the situation is simply absurd!
Consider a company like Renault. While the automobile, when the crisis will spread to the real economy will be affected. But at a price of 30 Euros, not distibution than 1 / 3 of its profits, entrprise gives a yield of about 16%! The course is back to pretty much the price the company before the'alliance with Nissan, and developments in emerging markets! It is 3 to 4 times the net result of a good year.
Rally, the holding company of Casino: no risk, 14% yield, 3.5 times the profits! How much will erode the margin if the consumer suffers from recession?
And so on. It is a course of sellout.
The best opportunities are certainly having said on the side of small values, the volatility was literally blown away. As the funds have come out en masse, prices have collapsed, even for securities with strong growth. Sword Group, a magnificent mechanical believed to 20-30% per year for 7 years, and sells software (and computer) is treated 6 times its profits. It is as if the growth the past 4 years had not existed.
Easydentic, a biometric specialist equipment, a real bomb, keeps publishing publishing exceed its targets, and display growth rates of 40-50% yet and it is only worth 13 times 2008 and 8 times 2009!
I pass, without forgetting, however, another company that seems to have proven, Yin partners, multichannel communication agency, innovative, open crosisance, whose founder is respected around the middle, which again raised in breakneck speed. It is worth 10 million euros of, virtually no debt, and EUR 1.6 million profit in 2007.
This market is crazy, and daring, ready to buy, (especially small caps) by accepting that they will not have the lowest price will enjoy it. There are probably even more money to be made in autumn 2002, because overall, companies are much healthier, while valuations are still lower than at the time.

Good luck!