Goodnight,
finally here, after a delay of several months the launch of my graduate school HEC, on "Emerging markets, the next bubble?
Having wished to work on a topical issue, with a dimension Predictive, I chose this theme was proposed by Philippe Henrotte. This work
me quite interested, although I would have preferred to work on a theme such as commodities, since the spring of 2008 the term bubble commodities applied more easily.
Anyway, my work, a summary of the main theoretical work on bubbles, deals with countries emerging from a macroeconomic perspective. I show that the appreciation of the assets of these countries in recent years is largely justified, although a number of pockets geographical / sectoral obvious excesses are beginning to appear.
In particular, the statement ends on a study of the BRIC countries, all four countries consisting of China, Russia, India and Brazil, which currently holds the attention of investors. I find a body of evidence that the current fixation people on China could well cover uen important bubble. While the situation in Russia and Brazil is much more nuanced and closely linked to changes in raw materials (a weakening of the latter can quickly lead to serious financial problems). For India, no specific conclusion, however.
I post the full document (71 pages, in French) in PDF format at the following address:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/5996804/Memoire-de-Recherche-HEC-David -Emerging Countries Cabessa-the-next-tip
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